Businesses face challenges of "surprise society"

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We live in a surprise society and the only companies who can predict the future are those who create it, according to a leading business school professor.

Businesses need to expect change, as the ETBS - the "expected time between surprises" - has come down quite a bit, Jonas Ridderstråle, a visiting professor from Ashridge Business School, told some 750 attendees of Gartner's Business Intelligence Summit 2007 in London this morning.

"We can relate to surprise in two ways," he said. "We can settle back and analyse why we were surprised or we can focus on being the surprise." This requires envisioning a future which no one else has and making it happen, Ridderstråle added.

"IT enables us to use innovative business models," Ridderstråle said, adding that businesses will require more than new tools to overcome challenges.

The economy has moved from an information desert to an information jungle, he explained. "The nerds have won," he told the audience of business and IT managers. "People like you and I should be so happy to be born right now when brain is bigger than brawn. In the middle ages, none of us would be alive right now - there's not much gladiatorial material in this room right now."

Companies must adapt to this change in focus. Ridderstråle offered two methods: survival of the fittest or survival of the sexiest.

Comparing corporate evolution to Darwin's theory of selection, Ridderstråle said that the fittest companies - ones with solid business models - stand the best chance of survival.

But other companies can survive by standing out, like peacocks. The colourful feathers of those birds should make survival more difficult, he explained, but instead help the bird stand out and thrive. "The bigger the handicap, the more attractive you become, assuming you're still alive."

Meaningful handicaps - such as the extreme aesthetics of luxury cars or ethical considerations in other sectors - can help set a firm apart from the crowd. "Don't try to control surprise, be surprise," he said.

One of the major drivers of these changes in society and business is the "deregulation of life" with more and more people living genuinely free lives, according to Ridderstråle, who said: "One of the few strong 'isms' left is individualism."

This deregulated lifestyle will affect business too. For example, Ridderstråle believes freedom of movement will lead to a new wave of global migration where the main talent magnet and brain drain is the US. "Everyone who's not American should be worried," Ridderstråle said, explaining that talented people are drawn there not because of politics or economics, but because the US is not "a country, it's a big hairy audacious idea."

The same theme carries over to companies as organisations that offer their employees and their customers a dream to believe in will succeed where others fail.

Ridderstråle concluded: "Do you work for an idea or just a company?"

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