3GSM: IM, mobile internet and location-based services top trends so far

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With the constant deluge of product, services and deal announcements coming from the 3GSM World Congress in Barcelona, it's sometimes hard to discern what's actually new and useful.

Time to call in the experts - IT PRO asked Rob Bamforth, a principal analyst at consultancy Quocirca, his thoughts on the conference so far.

"As always, there's a whole mish-mash of hype and new services and beliefs that certain things are going to take off and fly, so I'm usually sceptical," he said.

Bamforth noted that last year, mobile TV captured the attention of 3GSM attendees, yet it still hasn't fully taken off. "Just because it's doable doesn't mean people will leap in and pay for it." But he said mobile email - another previous 3GSM darling - has now moved past the tipping point into the broader market.

From the build-up before the show and announcements over the past few days, he sees several trends developing, including mobile instant messaging, mobile internet and location-based services.

"We're seeing more in the messaging area, tying together instant messaging in mobile space," Bamforth said, adding that issues of interoperability are being overcome but that the impact on other forms of messaging, such as SMS, may be negative. "There's a trend from premium per message with SMS to generic models for instant messaging - not payment by message but a flat rate."

"This time, mobile internet is the flavour of the show, more so than ever before," said Bamforth. "But it seems to be more pragmatic, with mobile operators realising they have to deliver mobile specific, targeted services to be effective." One example of this is Vodafone's partnerships with internet content providers such as Microsoft and Yahoo.

While location-based services are grabbing attention, including Nokia's GPS-embedded handsets, Bamforth finds near field communication (NFC) more compelling. The system could potentially let users hold payment information in their mobile phones, swiping them much the same way as an Oyster card is used. "But it requires a big ecosystem - you need to bring in merchants and banks," he noted.

The most compelling services, including location-type services and IM, could drive handset upgrades, says Bamforth, but he sees most people holding off such upgrades as a "nice to have next time" - therefore slowing takeup for such services.

In fact, he expects the increasing focus on handset functionality will help spur services uptake in the same way colour screens on mobiles led to screensavers sales, and better sound quality led to ringtones hitting the charts. "As numbers cross critical point, services become a bit more interesting," he said.

The most interesting aspect of 3GSM for Bamforth is the corporate tie-ups, although this year there's been few - with the notable exception of Vodafone's agreements with Microsoft and Yahoo. "I always expect to see announcements between IT and telecoms world - unusual coming together of two major players in their industries."

One change he noted this year was the focus on business customers. "The mobile industry has overfocused on consumers to its detriment," he said, but this year's conference seems to show that's changing.

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