Desktops losing out to laptops

Laptops are increasingly taking market share from PCs, according to research firm IDC.

Annual shipments of all computers worldwide grew 9.5 per cent to 227.7m last year, worth some $231.9bn. Desktops still dominate the market, but shipments of such PCs shipped grew by less than two per cent to 138.3m, while shipments of portable devices grew 26.3 per cent to 82.4m units, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

The IDC predicted that compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for desktops will grow at 3.8 per cent from 2006 to 2011. Laptops will see a CAGR of 16.1 per cent and will have half the client market by 2011, said the IDC.

"A strong portable offering is becoming more important, and while local players have a larger share of international markets, the shift to portables will favour the largest players," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

The January release of Microsoft's new operating system Vista may help spur growth in desktop computers, but only temporarily, said Doug Bell, an analyst at IDC's Personal Computing programme. "The release of Vista and a desktop refresh will create some growth opportunity in late 2007 and early 2008, before resuming a declining growth trend in the out-years," he said.

The bulk of growth in the desktop market will occur in emerging regions, the IDC said. More than half of desktop computer shipments went to Asia and Pacific (excluding Japan) or the rest of the world, including Latin America, Canada, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Those areas will represent 50 per cent of all worldwide computer shipments by 2011, IDC forecast.

"While more replacements and Vista adoption may provide a brief respite for desktops in 2008, essentially all desktop growth will occur in emerging regions," said Loverde. "Slower growth in desktops and in relatively mature regions changes the market dynamics a bit."

Global computer shipments of laptops and desktops will peak next year at 12.1 per cent growth for consumer users and 10.7 per cent for business buyers, IDC said.

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