New software tool predicts risk from diseases

A University College London (UCL) postgraduate student has developed a tool that allows patients to see how changing different aspects of their lifestyle can contribute to their overall future health.

The new system developed by MSc Health Informatics student Dr Chris Martin, is being promoted by the NHS innovation hub for the East of England, Health Enterprise East (HEE) and used by several GP surgeries.

Dr Martin combined well-known calculations for predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease with other data, such as the risk of death from common diseases, the relative risk for smoking related non-cardiovascular disease risk and changes in systolic blood pressure and serum total cholesterol with age.

The tool was validated against data from a UK clinical trial and has been very well received by a number of academic journals as well as forming the basis for Dr Martin's course dissertation.

Once a patient's information is entered, the tool provides a variety of graphical and pictorial presentations of individual's risks, allowing different courses of action to be accurately assessed.

The new method improves on the risk equation method introduced by the National Health Service and can also filter the impact of ageing on risk factors or be adjusted for different populations and demographic groups.

By demonstrating how lifestyle risks can be reduced by appropriate interventions, the tool is designed to empower patients to make informed decisions about treatment options and lifestyle modifications.

Martin told IT PRO the tool delivers improved modelling capabilities for GP health assessments. "Many patients won't understand what a percentage probability of suffering from something like heart disease really means. The tool represents that graphically and also takes into account other conditions, like high blood pressure."

Stuart Thomson, HEE Innovation manager responsible for evaluating and promoting Dr. Martin's tool said it had been very well received by GPs and patients. "This tool goes further than risk equations to provide different interventions and their likely impact on life expectancy, to give patients a more informed view on what they can do to improve their health prospects."

The UCL Centre for Health Informatics and Multi-professional Education (CHIME) MSc Health Informatics is designed for professionals and decision-makers wishing to contribute to the development of high quality healthcare in a technologically advanced and information rich society.

From September 2007 the course will be delivered via a new system of blended learning, offering optimal flexibility for students. A limited number of part-funded studentships are available to UK or EU students. Applications for the September 2007 intake need to be submitted by 31 August.

Miya Knights

A 25-year veteran enterprise technology expert, Miya Knights applies her deep understanding of technology gained through her journalism career to both her role as a consultant and as director at Retail Technology Magazine, which she helped shape over the past 17 years. Miya was educated at Oxford University, earning a master’s degree in English.

Her role as a journalist has seen her write for many of the leading technology publishers in the UK such as ITPro, TechWeekEurope, CIO UK, Computer Weekly, and also a number of national newspapers including The Times, Independent, and Financial Times.