Operators must create strong successor to SMS

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While users seem to be more hungry than ever for text messaging, mobile operators must start to more seriously consider what will be the next killer application once SMS has had its day, according to a leading analyst.

Earlier this week, figures from the Mobile Data Association (MDA) showed that more than one billion texts are exchanged each week - more than the volumes sent during the entire year in 1999.

But while SMS' popularity is good news for mobile players, they can't guarantee future survival on the same basis and must start to consider what comes next, according to John Delaney, principal analyst at Ovum.

"...Even if SMS traffic keeps growing at current rates into the future, mobile operators can't rely on revenues from SMS growing at the same pace. Part of the reason why people are still increasing their usage of SMS is that the effective price per message is going down... As a result, growth in SMS revenues is already slowing, and it will eventually flatten out," he said.

"So mobile operators need to plan an encore: a new type of communications service that can have the same kind of mass-market appeal as SMS, and that can inject new growth into mobile messaging revenues."

Delaney says there are several possibilities as to how the next big thing could manifest itself, but the one that will be ultimately successfully is likely to mirror some of the reasons why SMS has proved so successful such as its simplicity, cost and cult status.

"Whatever the successor to SMS might eventually be, its chances for success will be maximised if it can be marketed it in a way that takes it through the same steps that SMS has followed," he said.

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