Internet 'brownouts' by 2010, says study

Internet "brownouts" could be common by 2010 unless infrastructure investment is ramped up by 60 to 70 per cent, according to a new report.

"Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years," said a report from US research firm Nemertes Research.

"We estimate the financial investment required by access providers to 'bridge the gap' between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion (£20 billion) to $55 billion, or roughly 60 to 70 per cent more than service providers currently plan to invest."

The research goes on to explain the nature of the internet makes a total failure extremely unlikely. It is more likely that users will experience short periods of poor connection speeds, dubbed "internet brownouts", and that this lack of reliability will throttle innovation.

"The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon might not arise, not because of a lack of demand, but due to an inability to fulfill that demand," warned the paper. "One could even whimsically speculate that the lack of investment could be holding back the time at which the internet reaches a 'singularity' (a point at which accelerating change creates an unpredictable outcome, such as the internet becoming independently sentient)."

The report suggests that either more investment in internet infrastructure is required, or that access should be constrained.

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