Mobile WiMAX subscribers to top 80 million by 2013

Users' appetite for mobile WiMAX is set to grow considerably in the coming years, with their hunger for the 802.16e wireless networking standard capturing 80 million subscribers worldwide by 2013.

So says analyst Juniper Research, which today published excerpts of its report 'Mobile WiMAX: Global Opportunities, Strategies & Forecasts, 2007-2013,' although its predictions for the boom come with the caveat of there being enough devices and services differentiation on offer.

"We are seeing more and more Mobile WiMAX 802.16e trials and network contracts - over 50 have been announced so far in 2007 alone: the market is very active in all regions of the world. We anticipate that mobile usage will develop after initial demand for fixed and portable services - WiMAX 802.16e is a flexible platform that can operate in all three modes of usage," said the report's author Howard Wilcox.

"Mobile WiMAX will represent a single digit proportion of the global mobile broadband base by 2013. This will be a tremendous achievement for this new technology platform which has recently been boosted by the ITU's endorsement of it as an IMT2000 specification."

In addition to a growing subscriber base, mobile WiMAX service revenues will swell to more than $23 billion annually in the next five years, while more than 10 countries will have device markets that exceed $100 million a year, according to Juniper.

The top markets, according to the analyst, will be the US, Japan and South Korea.

Market size is likely to be impacted by a number of 'wildcard' factors, claims the report, including ultra low cost laptops, and devices with embedded broadband capabilities such as games consoles and digital music players.

However, service differentiation and the availability of suitable devices, will ultimately dictate the level of take-up.

"Mobile WiMAX will be a device-based technology, whether handsets, laptops, datacards, or other types of consumer device such as media players," added Wilcox.

"The twin challenges are for vendors to produce the right devices at the right time and price, and for Mobile WiMAX service providers to differentiate their offerings from existing mobile operators. Success in these challenges will accelerate market development."

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