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PC shipments tipped for double digit growth

But only if the economy doesn't become more unruly.

By Maggie Holland, 25 Mar 2008 at 17:06

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow by just under 11 per cent this year from 264 million units in 2007 to 293 million units this year, but their good health lies at the mercy of the economy, which could stunt growth if it gets any worse.

So says analyst Gartner, which is predicting that the market may fall victim to a weaker global economy.

Mobility is expected to be a key driver in the anticipated growth, with price and design making mobile PCS an attractive alternative to their desktop counterparts. More widespread mobile access and continuing evolution in affordable price points will also support growth, according to Gartner.

Emerging markets will have a key role to play in worldwide PC shipment health, adds the analyst, with unit shipments growing by just under a quarter (22 per cent) in this area in the fourth quarter of 2007 - accounting for a whopping 60 per cent of global growth.

"In many respects, the PC market is fundamentally in good shape. Mobile PCs continue to exhibit strong momentum, emerging-market growth remains robust, and desk-based PC replacement activity is stirring," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. "However, a deepening US recession, the rising possibility of a sharp slowdown in China's economy following the Beijing Olympics, and the elevated price of oil mean global PC shipments face increasing economic headwinds."

Replacement cycles will also come into play during the predicted growth period, according to Gartner, who warns that the rosy outlook comes with the caveat of the health of the global economy.

"Slowing GDP (gross domestic product) growth can and does affect PC shipments through its impact on consumer incomes and business profits," added Shiffler.

"Although the impact has probably softened over time as PC prices have fallen and PCs have become more indispensable to work and play, PCs are still far from being completely recession-proof. A deeper and more extended global slowdown emanating from the US and China would slow PC unit growth even more by sapping mobile PC demand, slowing emerging-market growth, and delaying replacement activity."