Analysis: Will Windows XP avoid kill date?

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‘Out with the old and in with the new’ seems to be the chant echoing around Mircrosoft HQ. First Bill Gates clears his desk and now Windows XP has slung its hook.

Well, the transition to Windows Vista was bound to happen sooner or later. Or was it?

That XP is to face the proverbial chop was recently confirmed by senior vice president at Microsoft Bill Veghte. In a letter sent out to customers and partners, Veghte confirmed the “end of sales” date for Windows XP will be 30 June.

As of this deadline, large computer manufacturers, such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard, are not supposed to be offering Windows XP preinstalled on new computers.

But that has met with some confusion over the past couple of days - not least because there have been several companies, including Dell, who are seemingly reluctant to get fully on board with Vista.

For the time being, anyone who buys a copy of either the Business or Ultimate versions of Vista is eligible for Windows XP Professional. When consumers purchase a computer they will get Vista preinstalled and an XP image CD on the side.

Dell is proposing to do the XP image installation for you, leaving the consumer with Windows XP Professional on the computer rather than Vista. This is certainly an embarrassing proposition for Microsoft, who is seeking to push Vista forward with its customers.

From an enterprise angle, Intel is one company that has said it will not be deploying Windows Vista across the firm. If reports in the New York Times are to be believed then the company’s IT staff “just found no compelling case for adopting Vista”.

This is an interesting turn of events. If you compound Intel and Dell’s actions with the fact that the cut-off date for system builders is 31 January, 2009 and for Windows XP Starter and Windows XP Home for NetBooks and NetTops, the cut-off point is 30 June, 2010, then you might begin to wonder why Microsoft are going to all this bother.

Even chief executive officer at Microsoft Steve Ballmer conceded back on April that XP could survive should enough customers warrant its existence. The fact that Veghte has confirmed that Microsoft will provide certain forms of technical support for XP customers until 2014 because the company recognises that “people keep their Windows-based PCs for many years” and that they have a “commitment to provide the highest level of support” for all their customers, would imply that XP is not obsolete just yet.

But what are companies like Dell playing at? When the floppy disc made its debut in the 1970s no one thought it would be destined for the IT graveyard along with CRT monitors and the Video CD, but when the time came, we moved on. Could it just be a simple case of stubbornness?

Service director at Quocirca Bob Tarzey thinks not. “If you go back 10 or 15 years ago when Microsoft introduced Windows 95 it turned out to be a success. That’s an example of when Microsoft was able to force the market. I don’t think that will happen with Vista. It’s not been a good release and there have been lots of problems with it.

“The concern surrounding this upgrade is that some users, especially home users, might feel as if they are being bullied into buying into Vista. Some users are just going to be more comfortable using Windows XP than Vista. It’s not stubbornness on the part of these suppliers, it’s just the reality.”

Microsoft may be looking to “force the market” with Vista – but in the case of XP, that may be a harder proposition than they initially thought.

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