Four billion mobile users by the end of this year

By the end of the year, there will be four billion active mobile subscribers around the world, according to a new report.

If the prediction by Informa is correct, the most recent billion users will have taken just five quarters to go mobile, driven by demand in emerging markets including China and India – which have added over 50 million each this year alone. The rate of take-up will slow down, however, with the next billion taking until the end of 2011.

Indeed, this year will see growth of 17 per cent in the number of mobile users worldwide. Western Europe will have a growth rate of 7.6 per cent. By 2013, the global rate will slow to just two per cent, and Europe just one per cent.

Within the next four years, some 70 per cent of the world will have a mobile device, with only Africa’s penetration rate falling below 50 per cent, the report said.

“It is clear that the mobile industry will see a slowdown in growth – it is simply untenable for the extraordinary growth witnessed over the last 18 months to continue,” said Informa analyst Nick Jotischky, in a statement.

“Even taking the fastest growing regions of Asia Pacific and Africa into account, where we will see well over 20 per cent year-on-year growth in subscription numbers this year, our forecasts suggest that this growth rate will slow to below 10 per cent in 2010,” he added.

This slowdown in new users means the top mobile operators need to rethink their businesses, and include areas like mobile broadband to add value – and increase income from – existing subscriptions, Jotisckhy added.

“It is no longer just about the quantity of subscriptions, but also the value that can be attributed to these subscriptions,” he said.

A report earlier this year suggested there would be two billion mobile broadband users by 2015.

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