Will Windows ever be toppled?

As Windows 7 sails successfully in the world, is Microsoft’s operating system set to dominate the market for decades to come? We take a look.

By Simon Brew, 4 Nov 2009 at 17:01

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It doesn’t matter where you glean the information from when it comes to assessing the dominance of Windows. Net Applications suggests more than 95 per cent market share. W3 Counter says just shy of 86 per cent. One Stat puts the number at just over 93 per cent, and Stat Counter agrees with that assessment too.

However you weigh up the market share of Windows, the simple truth remains that it was, is and will be for a long time the most dominant operating system on the planet. That’s been the case for a generation now, cemented by the positive response that Windows 7 has just enjoyed.

And right now, Windows’ nearest competitor, MacOS, bubbles around the five per cent mark. Windows, clearly, has a massive, massive advantage, although Linux has landed some heavier blows in the server market.

And thus it’s a brave pundit indeed who would suggest that this isn’t the status quo that’s going to exist for a long time to come. Microsoft has dominated the operating system market now for the best part of two decades, and it’s been fully cemented since the days of Windows 95. In that time, few contenders have been able to gather together even a hint of the required muscle and profile to chip away at Windows’ position. On the whole, Microsoft has effortlessly – with the exception of Linux and MacOS – batted away its competition.

That’s not to say it’s utterly invulnerable. Just look at Internet Explorer. It’s been five years now since Mozilla launched what has become the first really tangible rival to Microsoft’s web browser, Firefox. Following the generally very positive press Firefox has received, and its perceived security advantages over Internet Explorer, it has managed to inflict some damage. But how much?

Half a decade later, a large slice of which Microsoft spent not paying its own product the attention it required, and Internet Explorer still accounts for nearly two thirds of the market. It’ll be a good few years yet before its market share drops below 50 per cent, and that’s in a market area where Microsoft was arguably the most vulnerable. It’s a big punch that Firefox has thrown, but it’s taken a long time to land.

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8 comments

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Windows will be dominant until someone does it better

In the enterprise Windows is unlikely to topple any time in the next fifteen years due to the number of legacy applications that depend upon it in addition to current software. It's like the pundits talking about the death of Sun and Solaris yet SPARC boxes are still selling and in Revenue per box Sun is top of the list of Server Maker. For the faults Active Directory has (and it has a few) and the issues of interfacing with other OS's (which are reducing), there isn't really any alternative on the market to a meaningful extent. Sun has a Directory Server, so does Novell, but neither offer the same granular control you can do with Group Policy tools. Macs are fantastically easy to use and should be the first choice for the non-expert not on an administered network, but the tools aren't anything like as detailed. It's Windows race to lose in the corporate/education markets and even when it does get surpassed, there will be Windows boxes around for years after that. Just look at how many companies still have Sun SPARCs on the Desktop in their Engineering offices.

By cjehinds on Wednesday Nov 4

RE:

Simon Brew makes some valid points, such as the Microsoft grip on education followed by the reluctance of people to change, fuelled either by torpor or "the devil you know" effect. Another key point not made is the fact that most computers are sold with a version of Windows already installed, thus giving an unfair advantage to Microsoft and, again, inducing more torpor. In no way can it be claimed that Windows survives because it is better. IE survives in exactly the same manner, not because it is superior, but because of pre-installation and torpor. Returning to education, it is shameful the way our Government supports Microsoft in training and education when there are free and open source alternatives available. When other countries (Latin America, the Far East, India, etc.) and companies/institutions (The White House, The London Stock Exchange, the French Gendarmerie and Tax Offices, Spanish Schools, etc, etc.) are embracing free and open source alternatives, our Government thinks that the best way forward is to do deals with Microsoft. Clearly, it is not easy to persuade computer manufacturers to install an alternative OS when faced with the financial muscle of Microsoft, but it would be very easy for our Government to start backing free and open alternatives instead of a closed, secret, proprietary system. That really would make a difference.

By 6tricky9 on Friday Nov 6

Microsoft losing ground

Microsoft losing market cap & cutting jobs Apple is catching up to the size of Microsofts market cap, because for the past few long horn years they have been losing money year after year, while this year Apple reports record returns suggesting that OS X is the real growth area. 800 jobs have been cut from Microsoft so far. No matter how many Zunes, MS Keyboards and mice and windows CE they try to flog, they are losing ground to Apple. Snow Leopard doesnt cost an arm and a leg and the upgrade version contains the full version. Have an Old PC that needs upgrading to get windoze 7 to work? Why not try snow leopard and boot 132 loader, or better yet, buy a used Macbook for $300 on Ebay and get Snow Leopard. That or just buy a mac. I did. I got tired of IE being full of flaws, a registry that just kept getting corrupted and calling Microsoft to get new keys because I had to reinstall the operating system because my system was hacked. For the price of a retail version of anti virus, you can get Snow Leopard.

By Quixopix on Friday Nov 6

The easy choice?

If you want to run most major software, or games, the easy choice is to follow the herd. The current "mobile versions of your favourite apps" advertising reflects the greater vulnerabilty of Windows mobile to challenges from many directions. Ultimately, the internet appliance powered by Google ChromeOS could be the thing that slowly displaces Windows. The key point, is that Windows is most vulnerable to to a rise in low cost platforms running no-cost software, where the price of even OEM Windows is harder to absorb.

By Ip_nonsense574f8 on Friday Nov 6

Kool-Aid anybody?

@Quixopix: IMHO Apple is *the* most restrictive IT company in the world. It sells sealed boxes that only Apple are allowed to repair and at huge cost; e.g "Time Machines" (that regularly overheat and fail), sealed-in batteries (that regularly overheat and fail). Snow Leopard? I don't want my data eaten. AFAIK the latest Microsoft accounts were the *first* to show a loss. It's promising, but only a beginning. Apple may be hugely profitable, but in comparison to Microsoft it has a tiny share of the market. BTW those Macbooks on eBay to which you refer aren't those with the dodgy nVidia chipsets that people are trying to off-load, are they? You've moved from Microsoft to Apple; maybe someday you will come to realize that open and free is the best way forward, just as governments/agencies/companies around the world are.

By 6tricky9 on Saturday Nov 7

Stop the Bundle

If the pc manufactures were forced to stop bundling grossley subsidised copys of micrsoft products on there machines, the the public would soon start looking at alternitive operating systems, and microsofts strangle hold would soon be balanced out, when jo public realises the cost of the substandard products that microsoft spews out.

By Steve_L on Tuesday Nov 10

Windows 7

How can it be regarded as a success yet when it's only just come out, plus with the new announcement that windows 8 is out in only 2 or 3 years, instead of the expected 5 years between releases, does this harken back to the same situation that befell Vista a total disappointment for Microsoft? Windows 7 was released much earlier than originally intended because Vista was such a let down, so could it be Windows 7 is also seen as a let down at such an early stage, that windows 8 is going to be released early too.

By Matt2hew on Wednesday Nov 25

Windows losing ground fast-Microsoft Kool Aid needed

As a mac user I'm tired of the windoze fans using the word cool aid. To answer your question 6tricky9, the fact is PC users always said to buy a windoze machine cause it can play games. Now we see people pretty much have to buy an X-box to do it, cause staying on the bleeding edge of hardware just wasnt worth it, so people were sucked into the line that a PC was cheaper only to end up using it for less tasks then originally planned. So they sit there scanning their PC for malware, viruses etc, defragging, or buying a new operating system that supposed to fix what the last one didnt. Whats happening now is many games being developed are happening for the ipod touch and the iphone. The platform is cheap to buy and the development tools are given away for free. So, 6tricky9, Apple is not the most restrictive platform in the world, its Dashcode and widgets and X-code tools are offered for free to any registered user of OS X. Its actually a very cheap way to market software for a startup and the good news is Apple verifies that it will work with OS X, making sure its not full of malware, as each app is sandboxed for security. So, you PC users can flaunt how the big Egg Crate boxes of PC's are still running windows and commanding marketshare, but the portable platform of OS X fitting on phones etc, is still growing rapidly! The sales of Macs are still growing to anyone smart enough to look at investing in a mac rather then wasting their time maintaining their older PC. If Microsoft keeps losing market cap to Apple, 2-3 years and Apple will be bigger then Microsoft. Its already been catching up in leaps and bounds, the cat is out of the bag and running hard, lean and mean! Microsoft has already lost its Windows mobile, to Apple OS X...so moving forward Apple has the stronger suit! After all, last time I looked computers keep getting smaller and faster, yet windoze bloat cant fit on anything but a gorilla sized laptop. LOL Let the netbooks complaints and jabs begin, while holding an Iphone I chagrin :) If you have a PC why not try Empire EFI?

By Quixopix on Tuesday Dec 8