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Is the desktop PC dying off?

Google thinks the desktop PC is moribund, but has anyone told the old beige box?

By Stuart Andrews, 19 Mar 2010 at 14:12

Google’s John Herlihy isn’t the first person to predict the death of the desktop PC. And he probably won’t be the last.

Earlier this month at the Digital Landscapes conference in Dublin, Google’s vice president in charge of global ad operations told a slightly bewildered audience that “in three years time, desktops will be irrelevant,” adding that “In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs. Mobile makes the world’s information universally accessible.”

Herlihy’s remarks were given weight to by comments from Google’s chief executive Eric Schmidt, at the Mobile World Conference event in Barcelona in February. “The new rule is mobile first,” Schmidt said in his keynote speech.

“Mobile first in everything. Mobile first in terms of applications... Every product announcement we’ve done recently – of course we’ll have a desktop version – but we’ll also have one on a high performance mobile phone,” he added.

From Google’s perspective, the new mobile focus makes a lot of sense.

According to Morgan Stanley’s December Mobile Internet Report, the mobile web market will eventually be double the size of the desktop web market.

“Regarding pace of change, more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within five years," the report concludes.

Nor do the numbers look good for the old desktop PC. A recent IDC report looked forward to a period of global growth for the PC market leading up to 2014, but with sales of desktop PCs declining across all regions except Asia/Pacific and sales in emerging markets will just about keep the desktop alive.

At one end, the desktop PC is being hit by the growing use of smartphones, netbooks and notebooks. At the other end, it’s being hit by a resurgence of interest in desktop virtualisation – putting virtual systems on a server, not real ones on or under users’ desks.

In February, IDC predicted that 10 per cent of new desktop deployments in the corporate enterprise would be virtual. In short, the prognosis isn’t good. Is it time to wave goodbye to the descendants of the old beige box?

Only one foot in the grave

Maybe not. Look behind the headline-grabbing proclamations, the predictions and the statistics, and there are sound reasons why the desktop PC isn’t going anywhere.

In fact, not all the predictions are so grim. Earlier this month, a survey by investment bank Caris and Company predicted a 15 to 20 per cent market growth for PCs in 2010, and while this would be driven by notebooks and netbooks, the company expected desktop PC sales to stop eroding, and “take on a low single-digit recovery after two years of decline, driven by emerging markets, corporate workhorse use and power gamers.”

The key to the desktop PC’s survival is that the days of one-size-fits-all computing are over.

As Curtis Campbell, senior product marketing manager for commercial desktops at Dell suggests: “In today’s business environment, staff are increasingly looking to use their computers on their own terms. It is becoming very clear that it isn’t about the desktop or laptop anymore, it’s about the user experience.”

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3 comments

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Horses for courses

It is fairly obvious that we are moving increasingly into a "mixed" device environment and the Desktop PC will remain part of that. I do a lot of computer graphics and content creation, for me only a desktop will do, to visit clients with roughs or finished examples, I use a laptop as a playback device. But if all you need is typical 'office' type applications, mail and web browsing or, Cloud Computing, a netbook or laptop is all you need. The problem with our, the IT Business is people always looking for the "next big thing" which they then promote as the "only thing" - silly, it will all be different in 2 years time although unit costs will have risen in real terms.

By popskihaynes on Tuesday Mar 23

I Totally Agree with"popskihaynes "

I agree with popskihaynes there are horses for courses and the desktop is mine I too require a powerful machine for design projects I use a laptop in the field purely as a visual aid, I fully understand that there are loads of gimmick derivatives out in the world at the moment making an absolute fortune with the "latest must haves" most of them nailed onto a telephone but NONE of these could be of any use to me. Like lots of other professional people I require processing power and comfort a min 22" screen to create the requirement to earn a living, and believe me there are millions of grafters out there that require the same.

By Richard_Turpin on Tuesday Apr 13

Desktop replacement

I really don't think you have thought this one through? I am partially sighted my large screen mobile is at best enough to make a phone call.My desktop is my lifeline.With western nations having a higher demographic shift to high averages with accompanied sight deterioration it would be correct to say sales of small devices would of course decline with the shift in the market.Clearly Nokia has realised this to their detriment.Clearly Apple thinks that the IPAD will compliment the desktop but not replace it.One of the reasons for your conclusions would be that more mobile units are been sold to compliment the main desktop,consumer spending is falling and mobile devices are cheaper to purchase.Employment is going down so desktops are not demanded at this point in the cycle.

By blooskys on Saturday Jul 31