Is the recession over?
By Davey Winder in Editorial
Posted in Economy, Business, Blog on
It has to be either one of the greatest or most stupid press release strap-lines to hit my desktop in recent months, especially considering that we are slap bang in the middle of pretty much the worst financial crisis most of us care to remember.
Yet “Stop Press: The Recession Is Over” is what the press release says.
I guess it worked, in as far as it got my attention and, indeed, I am writing about it now. But what the heck does it mean, is there any substance to the claim beyond a clever bit of media puffery?
Well the man behind the release, CEO of management training outfit Mitchell Phoenix, Kevin Yates reckons that it all comes down to a game of chess. The argument being that the CEO today is in the middle of a game of chess and needs to be considering the endgame strategy now.
Sure, the strategy that had worked so well for the last decade has just been shot to pieces, but Yates says you can now either develop that new strategy to win (the clever money is on this one) or focus on survival and adapt your play turn by turn.
In other words, the savvy CEO should be planning on how to take advantage of the economic upturn right at the moment when most of us are slipping into the brown smelly stuff right up to our necks.
I mean, c’mon, who is really looking at the long term when the bank manager is knocking at the door and demanding that overdraft payment today?
Yates reckons “while one side concentrates on staying alive moment by moment, their opponent is executing a long-term strategy designed to win the match. Those whose aim is solely to get through the recession will get through it – but what will they find on the other side? Those with a longer-term vision will have seized the initiative.”
I guess he has a point, and it applies equally well to the IT business as it does, for example, the motor manufacturing trade. Car manufacturers are being hard hit right now, to the point where it looks increasingly likely that the government (or governments around the world, even) will step in and help shore them up short term. But Yates argues that the long-term strategic thinkers are the ones best equipped to not only survive but to build on that survival. Vauxhall are considering closing the factory for 9 months and keeping staff on 30 percent pay; Honda are closing for two months with staff on full pay.
“Both these manufacturers place staff retention above redundancy in their survival strategies.
In the past, factory closures would almost certainly have been accompanied by job losses. Then, as the market picked up manufacturers would be unable to return to full production immediately” Yates points out.
So he does have a decent point to make after all, and one that the tech business, the IT enterprise, the savvy CEO should be taking seriously.
Well, up until the point that he repeats “From the perspective of a CEO, this recession is over” and loses me again as I collapse on the floor in a heap of ROFLing jelly. Aided by the fact that I have just discovered how much the Taxman wants me to magic out of my hat by the end of January. Does sending the Inland Revenue a white rabbit count as long term strategic thinking?
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