Crazy as it sounds but have Microsoft fallen on hard times?

It’s a little different from the usual definition of being broke when they have so much money in the bank there probably isn’t enough “stuff” in the world for them to spend it on. Nevertheless, things are not looking up.

When Windows 95 was released, queues waited all night to buy it, even in countries where queues are more usually found between P and R. Some customers bought a copy before they had a computer to run it on. We haven’t seen anything like the excitement for Vista, nor has Microsoft made such a splash. No more paying the Rolling Stones a gazzillion dollars for a back catalogue track as they did with Start Me Up.

Pay for software?
In the past Microsoft have been able to rely on price being their advantage over Apple and others’ operating systems. They realised that no-one likes paying for software and hid the true cost of Windows in the purchase price of a new computer, riding on the back of ever-decreasing hardware prices. Following this course, there had to come a point where computers got so ridiculously cheap they became virtually free, as in the case of printers. Manufacturers would have to make their profits in consumables which is not likely to happen as electricity companies have captured that market. Similarly, most PC users stick with the operating system their computer arrives with so a new OS has to be something really special to generate direct sales.

When buying a version of Vista the true cost comes to light. PC World list eight ranging from a hundred quid for the severely cut-down version, up to £350 for the full Monty. Compare this with a copy of Linux and OpenOffice for free, or the single, full version of Mac OS X for £89 including delivery. Not only that, Microsoft dictate exactly where you can put your new software. Change the CPU in your PC and you have to get a new version of Vista. The words rip and off come to mind.

Obviously Vista use will increase as it is shipped on new computers but it seems Microsoft cannot compete on price alone especially as Apple reduced the cost of its own computers to match all but the cheapest PCs. When buying a computer the iPod generation may well look at a new Mac and think that as it runs all the other operating systems it might be the best one to go for. If they don’t like Mac OS X they can always run Windows instead and let’s face it, Macs do look cool. This could suit the rebellious nature of the young who look to grandad’s Mac rather than the Windows PC ma and pa want them to use.

Best of breed?
Another course open to Microsoft is to make their operating system the best of breed. It isn’t Mac snobbery that makes me think this is hardly likely to happen. Windows has been, at times, mediocre at best. Maybe not XP and Vista but I haven’t used it yet and note there have been several vulnerabilities found already and many devices and applications are unable run Vista until drivers are rewritten. At least DOS has gone for good, about 20 years too late.

Apple’s move in the 1990s to a modern operating system based on BSD Unix came just in time to save the company. The development tools, many of which come free with Mac OS X, have enabled Apple to create new applications rapidly and grow into completely diverse directions. They have turned from a computer company into a tight-knit, fast moving and fluid organisation who in a single bound have sewn up the music download industry. They are on-course to do the same for films, or at least compete with the best, and their next move will take them into direct competition with the likes of Nokia. Compare that with the monolithic nature of Microsoft, who, despite or because of enormous resources and hundreds of personnel, move at the speed of a pregnant yak.

What does the future hold?
Where are Microsoft now? Their .Net ambitions seem unfulfilled, the XBox has an uncertain future, tablet computers are hardly a daily sight, their iPod-beater seems beaten already and Microsoft Office is facing severe competition. The latter coming from two completely different directions, one in the form of OpenOffice and its derivatives adopted by governments around the world fed up with paying the Windows tax; the other from Google who also beat Microsoft when it came to search engines. Google’s free software is all that many computer users need, open source software supplying the rest. The latest move with Office using Open XML, a new proprietary file format, albeit one they have put up for ISO acceptance, is hardy likely to gain more users and especially as older versions of Office will not be able to open its files. The very similar OpenDoc format has ISO approval already and is native in OpenOffice.

In Dickens’ Hard Times, Thomas Gradgrind promotes a philosophy of rationalism, self-interest and fact above fanciful and imaginative pursuits until circumstances changed his view and he devoted the rest of his life to helping the poor the sick and the needy. It all sounds a bit like the latest I’m a Mac/PC ads and what became of rich old Bill.